The Outlook for 2009 is Better Than Many Experts Think

By Paul Bruno

Well, well, well…Look at this. A team budget of $80M, A starting pitching staff that features perhaps the best starter in baseball, followed by a very inexperienced quartet, a batting order full of players who are coming off ordinary years in 2008. Pretty bleak you would think.

It doesn’t make any sense that this club is in first place after 13 games of the 2009 season. So how are they doing it and who get’s the lion’s share of the credit?

In this corner, we believe the success begins with a much underrated manager in Cito Gaston. First, look at his resume and note that even when he won consecutive World Series’ in 1992 and 1993. He didn’t get his due then, either because it was alleged that those Jays’ clubs were so very talented that they couldn’t help but succeed. Our view is that he still had to keep all those egos in check and had a difficult task keeping all those stars in the right frame of mind. Besides, lots of talented teams have always fallen short of the big prize. Cito’s teams didn’t fall short. A strike and a couple of rebuilding years led to his dismissal in the mid-90s and it would be another 12 years before he was given the chance to steady the 2008 Blue Jays.

He inherited a team that was under .500 at midseason last year and guided them to a 51-37 finish. That is a pace that would had the Jays in the playoff hunt if we pro-rated the record over the entire season.

This brings us to the 2009 Jays. Pundits everywhere have them pegged for nothing more than a fourth place finish in the toughest division in baseball, The AL East.

Let’s break them down and see if you still agree.

The Starting Pitchers:

Roy Halladay: Name a better AL starter over the last 5 years. Nobody else qualifies.

Jesse Litsch: Made a big splash, and has been a steady performer, over the last year and a half.

David Purcey:  A power throwing former first round pick, this lefty has grown confident in his ability, during an impressive minor league career.

Ricky Romero: A smooth lefty, another first round pick, who is more crafty than quick and is now the fourth starter, may be the surprise element of this staff.

Scott Richmond: Canadian-born righty has been a pleasant surprise with his growth as a true pitcher, not just a thrower, in the 5^th spot in the rotation

Overall this is the weak link of the club, due to a lack of major league experience. The pedigree of the first round picks means there is plenty of upside potential, though.

The Relievers:

Last season the Jays’ staff ERA was the lowest in the majors and a deep bullpen was a key part of that. It remains virtually unchanged from last season.

B J Ryan: The closer has struggled with his command in the early going, but is being counted on to duplicate last year’s efforts, of 32 saves in 36 opportunities and a 2.95 ERA

Scott Downs: The lefty set-up man. He has been a model of consistency, keeping his ERA right around 2.00 over the last two seasons. He has been spotless in 5 appearances so far in 2009.

Brandon League: The flame-throwing righty was awesome once he got back into the lineup in mid-2008. He posted a microscopic 2.18 ERA over 31 appearances. In early 2009, he has struggled to find his control, allowing 13 baserunners over his first 6 innings pitched.

Jason Frasor: The most improved over his middling 2008 numbers, Frasor has added a third pitch, a changeup to his portfolio and has been nicked for only one baserunner (a walk) over 5.1 innings.

This group figures to cover up for some f the anticipated struggles of the starters.

The Infield:

First Base-Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millar- Overbay may have been overworked last season, as well as nursing a troubling wrist injury last year, accounting for a subpar season. This year, we have already seen that Millar can be an effective alternative while Overbay finds his stroke.

Second Base/Shortstop/ Third Base- Marco Scutaro has built on a pretty good 2008 season where he filled in, replacing a number of injured teammates. He is off and running as the daily leadoff hitter and shortstop, forming a solid partnership with Aaron Hill, who has rebounded impressively from post-concussion symptoms which plagued him in 2008. Scott Rolen battled injuries through much of 2008, but, like Hill, looks healthy and is hitting up a storm.

John McDonald provides defensive depth as one of the best defensive fielders in all of baseball.

Outfield/DH- Vernon Wells and Alex Rios both have the ability to improve on their power numbers from last season. Wells starts of the season in better health than last year and is another hot bat at the moment. Rios, for all his skill is off to a maddening start, where he has looked positively lost at the plate. He is simply too good for that to continue. The other half of a four man mix features the outstanding promise of Adam Lind and Travis Snyder, both of whom have built on solid 2008 seasons. One of these four will slide over to the DH position (mostly Snyder) and they are well balanced as two are righty batters and two are portsiders.

This offense will score runs.

The success of this team will be the ability to prevent them.

We think they are already showing the rest of baseball, what they will be all about.

The Jays have been vastly underrated and may be a big surprise in 2009.