What does the rest of the AL East think of the 2010 Jays? (Part 3 of 5)

Craig Williams covers the New York Yankees for the Fanball Blogger Network.
Here are his answers to the nine questions about the 2010 Blue Jays. He does a great job reporting on the Bronx Bombers at www.theblogthatruthbuilt.com.

1.  Who will be the predominant lead-off hitter in Toronto this season?

• Looking at the current depth charts that Fanball, ESPN and Yahoo! have for the Blue Jays, I’m left with no choice but to designate Aaron Hill as the best option to lead off.  Who else are you going to stick there, Vernon Wells?  No, he has a career OBP of .329 and needs to prove his wrist is healthy if he wants to be in the top half of the lineup – let alone leading off.  Lind is a ‘no’ because he needs to be a fixture in the middle; Encarnacion still has not tapped into his potential and is a ‘no’; Bautista, Gonzalez, Snider…Buck??? Not a chance.  One dark horse candidate is Lyle Overbay if the Jays decide to go straight Moneyball with their lineup.  Overbay has a career OBP of .363 and could consistently find himself as a duck on the pond when the big bats come up to the plate.  However, even in the most sabermetrically focused lineups, slotting Overbay into your lead-off spot is a bit unconventional.  I expect some experimenting during Spring Training and throughout the early parts of the season but, my money is on the Blue Jays letting their best hitter (arguably) flirt with 700 AB’s out of the one-hole.

2.  Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were both Silver Slugger winners last year. Do you see a drop in production from either of them this season?

• Lind and Hill were both sickos in 2009 and put up stat lines that are going to be tough for anyone not named Pujols, Braun or A-Rod to reproduce in back-to-back years.  So, in short, ‘yes’ I do see a drop in production from those two this year.  That is not to say that I do not expect them to be fixtures in the Blue Jays’ lineup.  I still think that both of them will have very good years – All-Star years even.  I just want to see if they can  ball out the same way two years in a row.  If they can do that, they’ll rise from very good to stud status.

3. Should the Jays resign Carlos Delgado as their likely DH or should they look at internal options?

• No, I do not think that the Jays should bring back Delgado as their DH.  Two players, most notably Brett Wallace and Travis Snider are already kind of caught in a numbers game.  From everything that I know, those are two guys are the Jays are going to need to develop into steady producers – if not more – if they plan on crashing the two-team party atop the division.  Maybe they can kick Jose Bautista to the curb, shift Snider to right field and let Delgado DH but, I’m not very aware of the type of intangible value that Bautista may bring.  Still, I say let the young ones get as many at bats whenever and wherever possible.

4.  Brendan Morrow has been a starter/reliever throughout his time is Seattle. Where would he be most valuable to the Jays?

• If there is a young pitcher in the starter/reliever limbo, the answer is always easy for me.  He is always more valuable as a starting pitcher.  I feel like I can answer this question better than anybody because that is all we hear in the Empire – bullpen this and bullpen that when it comes to Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes.  If a guy has enough of a repertoire to make it through a lineup multiple times then he should be starting.  Now, with Morrow, I know he’s got a big fastball and a nice slider but I am not very familiar with the rest of his arsenal.  What I do know is that he can’t throw strikes – evidenced by his 1.43 K/BB ratio.  I think his final start of 2009 – 8 innings, 1 hit, 9 K’s – is enough of a reason for him to at least get a fair shot in the rotation though.

5.  Where would you bat Vernon Wells and where should he play in the field?

• Wow, this is a nice dilemma, huh?  Let’s hope for your sake that he’s at least healthy and worthy of batting 5th or 6th in the lineup.  As far as his defense, it may not be what it used to be but, who is a better option?  It’s funny how a guy can be considered among the better center fielders in the game one year and then a few years later, he’s regarded as below average.  Guess we owe that to the advancement of defensive metrics, don’t we?

6.  What do you expect out of Edwin Encarnacion this season offensively?

• I was expecting a breakout from Edwin last year.  From 2007 to 2008 he increased his home run and walk rates – two signs that I thought pointed to a step in overall production.  Obviously, injuries took a chunk out of 2009 and the breakout never happened.  For fantasy baseball purposes I might suggest that someone put a buck down on him or take a gamble late in a draft.  I can’t honestly say that I have the same confidence in him when talking about the Blue Jays’ real-life team.  Might seem contradictory but, of course, the difference is someone can just drop him in a fantasy league.  He’s still 27, though, so all is not lost.  If he’s healthy, I can reasonably see him hitting another 20-25 HR…and maybe a little more if he cashes in on some of that post-sleeper hype that fantasy ballers love.

7.  Who will be the Jays MVP this season?

• I’m going to have to put my money on Lind or Hill right now.  I already mentioned that I do think their production will fall some from the lofty standards that they established last year but, I still think those two will be the best offensive players on the squad without too much competition.

8.  Who is the sleeper pick, from this roster and why?

• This is a good question.  There are a number of different ways you can go here.  I’ve already mentioned Snider and Wallace who could make a nice impact if given the opportunity.  I still think Encarnacion has a shot at reaching his potential – the doubts continue to rise though as the clock keeps tick tocking.  On the pitching side, Morrow definitely has some Tabasco in his right arm and if he can harness it at all, he’ll be a handful.  Another guy that comes to mind here is Mark Rzepczynski.  To be perfectly honest, I was not terribly impressed with his raw stuff when I watched him but, sometimes, you can’t argue with the numbers.  His numbers in both the Majors and Minors show that he can miss some bats.  Strikeouts aren’t everything but, that is certainly one of the biggest signs that someone can potentially be a valuable pitcher.  That’s a good number of guys to consider but I have a tough time picking just one.

9.  Let’s say, on Opening Day, the Jays lead by a run in the top of the ninth. The reliever who comes on to close will be ________.
• Jason Frasor.  He did well in the role last year and I don’t really see anybody on the roster who looks like a more attractive option at this point.

Tags: blue jays, New York Yankees, toronto blue jays